double post today. Below that of Paul . Then, separately, a of Authan .
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[Post di Paolo ]
Buongiorno.
Dopo il luminoso esercizio democratico di ieri, in cui patria, paese, mutuo, pignoramenti e favori hanno avuto la meglio sugli interessi carrieristici di qualcuno, è forse il caso di tirare un attimo le somme di quali sono stati i risultati per le varie parti in causa con una analisi da bar, ma comunque in maniera un po' più matura della infantile cantilena “Ha vinto Berlusconi. Comunque ha vinto Berlusconi. Si, ma ha vinto Berlusconi” che Cruciani ha passato ieri sera in trasmissione, manco fosse un bimbo che sfotte friend for the outcome of the match of the football team of the heart. All
course in my personal point of view and cross-eyed.
For the majority, nothing has changed in the near or the PDL or for the league, there's just a bit 'more clarity: the margins are risicatissimi FLI but in recent weeks that required a couple of steps a minority every week, substitute the new purchases from IDV, SVP and the same FLI. Some other Member, now that it's clear who the winner will jump on his wagon in the next few days. You can vivacchiare for a while '.
Probably not even in the long run PDL League and will suffer shocks. I think Casini and the opening to the UDC on the one hand may lead to one of those situations democristianissime lucrative outside support / withdrawal charge / abstention programmatic / etc. etc.. the other will enable the League to find an excuse to justify to their constituents before a series of results is currently not in line with the promises (of a federalism increasingly called into question - the costs are currently estimated at about ten billion euro a year - the inability to protect the interests of administrative regions - speaking only for the Veneto, in practice are gradually fading compensation for municipalities affected by the Mestre bypass, those for the LNG terminal Porto Viro, aid for flood victims of Vicenza and Verona, the financing of the health system, and so on). I do not see, however, a long-term government on this basis. I still think that you will vote in late spring.
Nothing changes even for the PD: the one yesterday was not his battle, you have no conviction and the various aggregates Calearo who had improvidently board during the election campaign had already abandoned by ceasing to be a spanner in the works. I wonder if they understand what is going on between a nap and the other ... At the limit, once again, the unrest of the past will be charged to discredit the (quite inappropriately, but what is central: for many in Italy are to make some noise e saranno sempre i soliti comunisti), a conferma di una inadeguatezza a ruoli istituzionali e del clima d'odio che fomentano.
Gli sconfitti sono evidentemente finiani, dipietristi, terzopolisti, ed opposizione in generale, che, per motivi diversi escono ridimensionati nei numeri e nella credibilità del loro progetti. Per FLI e IDV si sono evidenziate in proporzioni diverse due tematiche non certo nuove: la scelta dei candidati (in particolare Di Pietro continua sistematicamente ad alimentare una molto consistente massa di transfughi verso il proprio nemico assoluto) e l'estrema eterogeneità degli indirizzi politici al proprio interno (specie per FLI). Credo che per il terzo polo questa sconfitta possa essere letale. Già ospitava un element of political instability and a brake as Rutelli, was already extremely heterogeneous in terms of political orientations (consider for example the question of lay), we see reduced to one of three components and is seen to approach the area of \u200b\u200bgovernment subtract the component main. I doubt that it can start from here.
As I doubt that a very fragmented opposition already in evanescent but different political projects, and further reduced in numbers, has a chance even in the medium term to be an alternative. Berlusconi will probably drop a sunset, but not replace it.
The real winner is the SVP you see return to the center of the games, and that a bit 'will show itself as the party of responsibility and simultaneously collect benefits for each that will please the majority. Not to mention that this situation allows UC to engage in a stronger position in relations with the right alliances for the post. All very "demitasse."
goes without saying that I do not think the worst defeat for me is the country with a government that is weak and without hope in the midst of a crisis that has targeted. I think yesterday has created a worst-case scenario "for Italy.
Hello Paul, the pessimist
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